The college football action is heating up as we head towards late October, as is our race to 40 winners against the spread!
While Reed Wallach has the lead, Pat Forde has improved his record to 50% on the season and is only back four games as we hit the stretch run of the regular season. With some high-leverage conference games on deck in Week 9, where will our Sports Illustrated insiders go?
Here's this week's picks against the spread.
Pat Forde's Picks Against the Spread
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ohio State -25.5
The Buckeyes have had two weeks to marinate in the sting of defeat against Oregon and should come out in a fury. The Cornhuskers are making their second straight road trip, with a freshman quarterback who is finding out that life can be tough in the Big Ten. This could snowball quickly.
Indiana vs. Washington Prediction and Pick
Pick: Indiana -6.5
The Hoosiers should be fine with backup quarterback Tayven Jackson, who started several games last year and has played well in relief duty this year. Meanwhile, the Huskies are winless in two multi-time-zone Big Ten road trips, falling at Rutgers and Iowa. And they are walking into an ESPN “College GameDay” frenzy in Bloomington, which doesn’t get these kinds of opportunities often.
BYU vs. UCF Prediction and Pick
Pick: BYU +1.5
A 7-0 team getting points against a 3-4 opponent? Yeah, I’ll take them. The Cougars were fortunate to escape against Oklahoma State last week, while UCF was pushing unbeaten Iowa State to the brink. But BYU now feels like a Find A Way team that can handle the trip to Orlando and come out 8-0.
Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
Pick: Navy +13
The Midshipmen are probably the better of the two undefeated service academies, with a more well-rounded offense behind the talents of quarterback Blake Horvath. With 11 touchdown passes, Navy already has exceeded its season total for every year since 2013, and it also leads the nation in red-zone touchdown percentage at .957. The Midshipmen also excel at not beating themselves, with an active five-game streak without a turnover.
SMU vs. Duke Prediction and Pick
Pick: Duke +12
Third straight road game for the Mustangs and second in two Saturdays, going from the Bay Area last week to North Carolina this week. Manny Diaz will have a gameplan to slow down the high-octane SMU offense. The Blue Devils have turned hanging around into an art form – they may not win, but they can hang around long enough to lose by 10 points or fewer.
Reed Wallach's Picks Against the Spread
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick
Pick: Syracuse +5.5
While this game should be full of points, I don’t believe the difference between these teams is as great as the point spread indicates.
The Orange have been frisky as an underdog this season, winning both games outright, and are being undervalued against a Pitt defense that is outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass this season.
That should set up nicely for Kyle McCord and the Syracuse offense that is 32nd in EPA/Play.
The Panthers are undefeated, but its four wins against Power Four competition have been by a combined 17 points.
The Orange are live on Thursday night.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mississippi State +6.5
While Arkansas has been better than expectations this season, the team is limping into this one.
Quarterback Taylen Green didn’t look healthy out of the BYE week with a leg injury and now running back Ja’Quinden Jackson is trending towards sitting out this road trip to Starkville.
The Bulldogs may have a ghastly 1-6 record, but the team has been outperforming oddsmakers expectations since Michael Van Buren Jr. took over under center for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State has covered in three straight games as an underdog against Texas, Georgia and Texas A&M.
Arkansas has been thriving as an underdog this season, upsetting Tennessee for one, but is in the rare spot as an SEC favorite. I’ll grab the points in what could be an upset on Saturday afternoon with Jeff Lebby looking to score his first league win.
Texas Tech vs. TCU Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas Tech +6.5
It’s another edition of buy low and sell high on middling Big 12 teams!
There simply isn’t much separating these two teams, and just a week ago TCU was priced as a small underdog against a sputtering Utah team and Texas Tech was laying over a field goal against Baylor. After a TCU upset and a disheartening Texas Tech loss, we are getting a swift market reaction.
However, TCU hasn’t covered as a favorite yet this season against Power Four competition, and the team’s inability to stop the run (111th EPA/Rush) will keep the Red Raiders within the number in what should be a back-and-forth affair.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick
Pick: Vanderbilt +18.5
Let’s put some respect on Vanderbilt’s name!
The Commodores continue to be underrated in the betting market, and I’ll grab the big price on the home underdog against a Texas team that took its first loss last week.
While many will bank on a Longhorns bounce-back effort, Vanderbilt continues to be a tricky team to crack with its fundamental play and ability to shorten the game. Diego Pavia and the offense only have two turnovers on the season while ranking top 40 in EPA/Play and playing at a bottom half of the country tempo.
Meanwhile, the defense ranks inside the top 70 in both EPA/Play and EPA/Rush as the team mitigates explosive plays.
Texas is the far superior team, no doubt, but the Commodores continue to outperform expectations as an underdog, covering more than two touchdown spreads against Virginia Tech, Missouri and Alabama. While the Longhorns were able to overwhelm the likes of Michigan and Oklahoma, both of those teams are subpar offenses, Vanderbilt has the ability to put points on the board against the Longhorns.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
In one of the marquee games of Week 9, I’ll side with the short home favorite.
I believe LSU is getting a bit too much credit after two wins in SEC play in the last two weeks, catching Ole Miss at the end of a second-game gauntlet to start the season, and beating up on a banged-up Arkansas team.
The Tigers continue to not be a threat in the run game, 86th in EPA/Rush, putting a ton of pressure on Garrett Nussmeier to create with his arm. While Nussmeier is an elite QB, I will trust Mike Elko and the talented Texas A&M defense to find answers against a one dimensional offense.
On the other side, this will be the best offensive line this improved LSU defense has faced to date, and on the road, I will side with the team I have power rated higher to win by a field goal.
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