Patrick Mahomes is undefeated against the Broncos in his career and the Chiefs’ 15-game winning streak over their AFC West rival predates his time as a pro.
Kansas City, which has won four in a row since its season-opening loss, is a 10.5-point home favorite against Denver at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday night. The total is set at 48.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, which is tied for the second-highest of the week.
Despite the Chiefs’ recent dominance, four of the last five games in the series have been decided by six points or fewer and Travis Kelce (ankle) is questionable heading into a short week.
Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook in Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers:
Bet $5 on DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds and Game Info
Moneyline: Broncos (+440) | Chiefs (-599)
Spread: DEN +10.5 (-110) | KC -10.5 (-110)
Total: 48.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Thursday, Oct. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video
Broncos vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Chiefs Over 30.5 Points (-102)
The over is 4–1 in Broncos games this season. Only Bears games have seen the over hit at a higher rate.The Chiefs are 3–3 against the spread as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2022.Denver (0–4–1) is one of three teams that has still yet to cover the spread in 2023.
The Broncos’ league-worst defense let them down yet again last week. The Jets left Denver with a 31–21 win even though they scored just one offensive touchdown on a 72-yard romp by Breece Hall. New York’s other points came via five field goals, a defensive scoop and score and a safety.
That was the third time this season the Broncos allowed at least 30 points and it actually lowered their defense’s average points allowed to 36.2, which remains the most in the league by far. No team allows more yards per game than Denver (450.6), which is also dead last in rushing defense (187.6).
Kansas City ranks in the top half of the league in rushing offense, led by Isiah Pacheco’s 65 rushing yards per game. The second-year pro has scored in three straight games and enjoyed one of his best showings as a rookie last season against the Broncos.
Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook in Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers:
Bet $5 on FanDuel and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
Of course, Denver’s defense will have its hands full with Mahomes, who leaned heavily on Kelce in a 27–20 win over the Vikings last week. The two connected 10 times for 67 yards and a score for the third time in four games. A reliable second option has yet to emerge in this offense after Kelce and even still, this offense is top 10 in points (25.6) and yards (381) per game.
The Chiefs’ haven’t yet been the offensive buzzsaw that led the NFL in scoring in 2022, aside from a 41-point outburst against the Bears. Expect a similar performance against the Broncos on Thursday as they are one of two teams that have been worse than Chicago on defense through five weeks.
Kelce’s availability is key, of course, so keep an eye on his status. But even if he’s absent, Mahomes should still be able to find a way to hit 30 points, something the Commanders, Jets and Dolphins (in each half) already accomplished against the Denver defense.
