The most consequential series this weekend is between the top two teams in the NL East, the only division race that still isn’t decided. The Braves host the Mets in a three-game set at Truist Park in Atlanta. New York currently holds a one-game lead in the NL East, and can clinch the division—and the No. 2 seed—with a sweep this weekend.
It’s true that both teams have already secured playoff berths and will have home field advantage in their first postseason round, either the wild-card or division series, but the team that wins the NL East will have a major advantage: a first-round bye. That would allow them to reset their pitching rotation, rest players who could be a little banged up after the grind of a six-month season and, most importantly, not have to worry about an early October exit.
Entering tonight’s series opener, the Mets have a 79.3% chance of winning the NL East, according to FanGraphs, in no small part because of an additional wrinkle to this year’s postseason: There will be no one-game playoffs to decide which team wins the division, as has been the case in previous seasons. Instead, there are a series of tiebreakers that determine which team finishes ahead of the other, the first of which is a head-to-head record. The Mets have won nine of their first 16 games against the Braves, so all they have to do is win one of their final three matchups with Atlanta to take the season series and earn the tiebreaker. That’s crucial, because it gives New York an additional game cushion in the standings.
So, if the Mets win two of the three games this weekend, they would clinch as soon as Monday with either a win at home over the Nationals or a Braves loss to the Marlins. If Atlanta wins two of the three games vs. New York, the two teams technically would be tied in the standings, but essentially, the Mets would hold a one-game lead because of the tiebreaker. In this scenario, the Braves would need to win one more game than the Mets to win the NL East.
For the Braves to get the tiebreaker, they need to sweep the Mets, and that means they have to beat both New York aces, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, as well as Chris Bassitt, who is a really good pitcher in his own right. It seems unlikely this will happen, even with all three games coming at home and, in order, Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton pitching for Atlanta.
Let’s say the Braves do win all three games, though. Everything would flip from there. They would hold the tiebreaker and have the one-game cushion. Their magic number would be one, and they could clinch the East as soon as Monday with either a win or a Mets loss. Meanwhile, the Mets would need to sweep the Nationals need the Marlins to sweep the Braves to win the division.
Both teams have a lot at stake this weekend. The Braves certainly are under more pressure because they need to win all three games to have the upper hand; the Mets, though, have much more to lose. All of this because of the regular-season head-to-head tiebreaker.
The NL East, however, isn’t the only playoff race impacted by this tiebreaker rule. The Padres can clinch one of the final two NL wild-card spots as soon as tomorrow night because they own the head-to-head advantage over the Brewers. Right now, San Diego is three games up on Milwaukee, with both teams having six to play. But, because of the tiebreaker, any combination of three Padres wins or Brewers losses secures the Friars a playoff berth.
This wouldn’t necessarily mean the end for Milwaukee, though. The Phillies are in shambles right now, having lost five straight games and 10 of their last 13, and their lead for the final wild card is down to just a half game. Except, there’s that tiebreaker again. Philadelphia holds the advantage, so its lead is effectively 1.5 games.
